Trump now holds a 59.7% chance of winning the Electoral College, despite trailing VP Harris in the popular vote. Trump is projected to secure 274.6 electoral votes to Kamala’s 263.4, giving him a narrow but significant edge.
However, Kamala leads in the popular vote probability at 63.1% to Trump’s 36.9%, with predicted vote shares of 50.1% and 48.8% respectively.
Trend lines show relative stability in electoral vote predictions since August, with both candidates hovering around 270 votes.
Kamala briefly peaked at 279.8 votes in late August but has since declined.The popular vote share has been more volatile, with Kamala consistently leading but her margin fluctuating.
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